Thursday, August 18, 2016

Searching for simple, fair Canadian electoral reform


It’s time for a Canadian representative parliamentary system. Inclusive, fair, and simple enough to satisfy disparate sensibilities and majority rules.


ORIGINALLY PUBLISHED HERE IN THE HILL TIMES


By Wayne Pajunen                                                                                                              Thursday Nov. 26, 2015

Democratic Canadians are fond of the practice “majority rules”. The simplicity of this aphorism is practiced and quoted from our children’s playgrounds to our corporate boardrooms.
Sir Isaac Newton recognized the value of simplicity: Truth is ever to be found in simplicity, and not in the multiplicity and confusion of things.
 
Since 1867 majority rule is how we had hoped our electoral system would function. This electoral model has not withstood the modern day test of time though. When electing Members of Parliament (MPs) and three or more parties garner votes cast the gold standard of majority rules is too often undermined. Elected commonly receive as low as 30% support as we’ve settled for first past the post (FPTP) victors, as though our communal destiny should equate to thoroughbreds galloping.
FPTP equating to “minority rules” is not considered fair play by many Canadians and may have run its final race. Justin Trudeau who recently won a majority government with 39.5 percent of the vote has committed to this victory as being the last election to acquiesce to the first past the post model.

Voters are weary of MPs winning seats and majority federal governments with tallies far short of a majority. Many Canadians estranged by FPTP, knowing their candidate has no chance to represent them parliament, conclude; “Why should I even vote?” This common belief is anathema to our democratic values. Reflecting this sense of impotency Elections Ontario reported a record 31,399 voters took the time to go to the polls only to register a protest non-vote!

Contriving a system whereby majority rules among three or more contesting party candidates is a conundrum democracies world over have struggled and experimented with, while devising diverse alternatives to FPTP.

The USA fortuitously, or otherwise, swept aside multiple party logistics by requiring exorbitant sums of money to contest national campaigns. This model effectively sets the stakes at the table too high for parties, other than the established Republicans and Democrats, to fairly compete. This model doesn’t pass muster in Canada where we have agreed to strict spending limits to preserve fiscal electoral fairness among classes and parties, preventing corporations and the wealthy from perceived or real “buying” of elections and candidates.

Many have touted a proportional representation (PR) model whereby a party gains legislative representation equal to the percentage of votes garnered. A party gaining under 40 percent of the vote today and a majority government, as happened in 1993 and 2015, would receive an equal percentage of the seats in a minority parliament.
Two drawbacks to this method are significant. Foremost, voters are prohibited from electing a candidate to directly represent their individual and community interests. Accordingly these MPs have no direct obligation to local constituent concerns.
Secondly PR often leads to political fragmentation whereby there are too many cooks in the kitchen and “functioning” coalitions are propped up by backroom horse-trading and policy compromises. The upside, and at the same time downside, is socially desired parties would attain representation in parliament proportional to their votes while ornery parties, such as a few in Europe, gain a voice on the national stage dragging discourse down to their insensitivity contrary to Canada’s greatest virtue, our sensitivities of inclusiveness.

A third oft mentioned option is mixed-member proportional (MMP) representation which requires voters mark their ballot twice to endorse a preferred local candidate and a political party. Ontario’s referendum found MMP wanting and rejected it in 2007.

Israel’s PR and Germany’s MMP systems have had to be modified, some say gerrymandered, several times since their inception, hardly simple or fair.

British Columbia has seen wide support for electoral reform yet has twice voted down the proposed BC-STV (single transferable vote – STV, a.k.a. instant-runoff voting (IRV)) system. Rumours are Ottawa is considering this model, but as BC demonstrated, adopting the STV model is easier said than done. STV does have its merits. Voters mark their ballots with their first second and third preference. If tabulations produce no candidate garnering more than 50 percent of the vote the second choice is added to the equation and so on until a majority victor emerges. One obvious shortcoming occurs when voters believe the election is close and he/she is motivated to undemocratically mark the “second best candidate” last on the ranked ballot to improve their preferred candidates fortune in a possible run-off.

Reforming the first-past-the-post system is a laudable however daunting undertaking. Not so long ago three provinces moved on replacing the FPTP system and via referendums voters vetoed the proposed alternatives to their familiar voting construct in Prince Edward Island (2005), Ontario (2007) and British Columbia (2009).

In the name of simplicity, fair and direct representation we could consider maintaining our current system with one modification and one addition.

The modification: Once the vote is completed and the leading vote getter fails to receive more than 50% of the vote, the process could be modified to accommodate a run-off vote among the top two vote getters conducted 2 to 7 days after. The run-off vote could be conducted by computer or in person at the same voting station location as they did on Election Day. To facilitate e-voting, voters are given a Second Round Voters ID (SRV-ID) card along with their Election Day ballot. Voters keep the SRV-ID or “run-off voter card ID” should a second round be necessary as a credential to vote in person or with a secure registration number to vote on-line in the second round.

The second round of voting modification would address the desire for majority rule, and provide hassle free participation in the run-offs, enabling voter turnout to stay as close as possible to the Election Day participation rate. If the likes of Pay-pal can provide secure on-line transactions, surely Canada can provide a secure e-voting process.
In fact, it may be that today’s technology could facilitate implementing the balloting process on-line, another consideration.

This modification does not address the needs of the citizens who voted for a party that did not win representation in the House of Commons, as consequence of our current FPTP system or the considered STV method. The disenfranchised would remain so under all options being considered save for the chaotic PR system.

Newly elected Prime Minister Trudeau apparently believes, as did his father, that a benevolent government enshrines legal rights, such as our Charter of Rights and Freedoms, to appease and protect the existence and development of the minority, and so should our electoral system.

The addition: The unrepresented disenfranchised minority of Canadian’s deserve voice in parliament. The addition to our electoral system would consist of adding 10 seats to the House of Commons structuring a forum for proportional representation for parties that fail the FPTP test. It might work like this; if the Green Party received 50 percent of the vote among parties bereft of representation they would be allotted 5 of the 10 available seats and so on for the other unrepresented parties. The party members to occupy these seats would derive from a prioritised list of 10 candidates announced before the election so their supporters would know whom they would most likely be voting for should their preferred candidate’s party accumulate sufficient votes to qualify for representation. This formula would provide a deserved voice in Parliament for the significant number of Canadians currently muted by FPTP and would not have undue sway on the majority elected balance of power within a stable government structure.

This formula, which we may label the Canadian Representative Parliamentary System (CRPS), would serve Canadian’s well, as we are now, individually and among our communities yet be more inclusive than our current model.

Although CRPS won’t uphold the democratic ideal of every vote being equal Canadian’s don’t have that now. Electoral districts do not have equal numbers of eligible voters. Some northern ridings elect MP with less than 35,000 constituents, whereas several metropolitan cater to over 120,000 constituents. Canadian’s in northern ridings have 3 to 4 times more proportional representation per vote than many urban constituents.
What CPRS will do is give disenfranchised Canadian voters and their parties an effective voice in the House of Commons.
CRPS provides for familiarity and stable governments able to lead Canada and make difficult the decisions of governing while accommodating Canada’s disenfranchised.

As uncomplicated as CRPS is, it will require thorough study, negotiation and procedural rules from the ballot box to question period in the House of Commons. As a classic Canadian compromise, CRPS’s simplicity and inclusiveness may even pass a surely obligatory referendum where other considered options have recently failed. A referendum on CRPS would demonstrate respect of the populace, continuity of Canadian values and beliefs and welcome a principled inclusion of the disenfranchised.

A Canadian Representative Parliamentary System may be inclusive, fair and simple enough to satisfy disparate sensibilities and majority rules, and it be another step forward along the path of our great country’s evolution.

As another of mankind’s greatest thinkers Leonardo da Vinci advised: Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication.


Wayne Pajunen

Wayne is a political affairs columnist, consultant and former employee of Canada’s House of Commons and the Liberal Party of Canada. His work also appears in The Hill Times, The News Lens, Taipei Times and AMCHAM Business Topics magazine.


Monday, May 9, 2016


Does Trump’s comb over & bombast
hide more than a lack of hair?

A serious look at how this presidential campaign can play out. Even if it is a challenge to be completely serious when discussing "the Donald... Quack quack.

Wayne Pajunen                                                                                                      Sunday May 8, 2016

Traditional Republicans and their presidential candidates have been buried under Donald Trumps comb-over coiff by his schismatic and charismatic jingoism.
They are now left scratching their heads to premature baldness wondering how an “outsider” has hijacked their party’s presidential nomination.

As seemingly improbable as the hill to presumptive nominee was for Donald Trump to climb, he’s now broadcasting his Commandments – not quite 10 – to scale his Mount Sinai campaigning to become commander in chief of the United States of America.

He would also become the first President elect that didn’t come from the political or military battlefield, but rather the worlds of illusory real-estate finance and the contrived showmanship of “reality” TV.

Trump: As seen from abroad

Many US citizens, Canadians, Mexicans and Brits are stupefied at how Trump could win the traditionally stoic Republican Party’s nomination for president.

Canadian Comedian Rick Mercer: “How is it that the party of Eisenhower, the party of Abraham Lincoln, has become the plaything for the host of the Miss Universe beauty pageant? … It is the most ridiculous thing I have seen in my entire life… reality TV is not this stupid”
“Rick’s Rant” – “Honey Boo Boo for VP?” – gets funnier. Check out the 1’53” video here! (More links to the lighter side at the end of this article) 

Former Mexican President Vicente Fox: "He's cheating the American people... It's lie after lie."

As reported in The Washington Post, British parliamentarians described Trump as an: “idiot”, a "wazzock", “bonkers”, “a buffoon”, “ridiculous xenophobe”, a “demagogue who panders to people’s fears, rather than their strengths”, “the orange prince of American self-publicity”, and Labour shadow minister Jack Dromey, even exclaimed -- Trump shouldn’t be allowed within a thousand miles of Britain, is how he put it -- said that Trump was a “fool” but that he wasn’t free to be a “dangerous fool in Britain.”

Trump’s Tea party spoilers

The left wing of western politics has always accused the right wing of living in the selfish self-interest realm of the sociological spectrum, but the Tea party represents a further selfishness. An unwillingness to compromise. They’d rather take their ball home and shut down the US government, as they did in 2013 and threatened since, rather than compromise.

How did it come to be that traditional reasonable and pragmatic Republicans such as Paul Ryan, John Boehner, John McCain, Romney, two President Bushes, etc. are now on the outside looking in on their own party? How did their party become hijacked by the Tea party and their ilk?

A convergence of events is required for most catastrophes and monumental events to occur. In the case of the transmogrification of the Republican Party there are multiple considerations as to how the home to the traditional conservative base was hijacked.

Among the culprits are, the backfiring of gerrymandering of electoral districts by the old hands emboldening pockets of Republicans around the country that have no need to compromise to win their districts. The Citizens United v. Federal Election Commission ruling in January 2010 by the US Supreme court allowing unlimited election spending by individuals and corporations which transformed the political landscape and manipulation of discourse. And not to be forgotten, hurried global free trade that has turned the western world's economic model upside down and rocked the lives and expectations of its middle class citizenry.

Trump's narrow appeal

Will Trump's unorthodoxy lead to the stability desired by his economically and politically estranged supporters? 

This tale has yet to unfold, but to get to that stage he must gain a broader audience than the one his allure has reeled in. 

Although Trump has been perceived as a fool he hasn't come this far by strategizing foolishly.

A CNN/ORC International poll released May 4th has Clinton preferred to Trump by 13 points among nationally registered voters, 54 to 41 percent.
The man that has pandered to TV audience ratings for 14 years and now for votes must surely change his tune to woo a broader base or double down (see Trump's trump card below). 

Motives to vote for or against Trump

President Obama’s victories were fuelled by positive motivations of hope and change, voters felt good about going to the polls and voting for him.

With record high disapproval polling numbers for both Trump and Clinton, this election is unravelling as one where voters may be motivated to go to the polls equally by hope and hate.


Consider this report from CNN:

Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton register net negative ratings in double digits, indicating the front-runners for each party's presidential nominations are viewed negatively at historic levels, according to a new CBS/New York Times poll.
That makes Trump and Clinton viewed more unfavorably than any front-runner for either party since 1984, when CBS began polling voters on the question.
On the Republican side, Trump scores a net negative of -33, with a favorable rating of 24% compared to 57% of voters who view him unfavorably. On the Democratic side, Clinton fares only slightly better with a net negative of -21, registering a 31% favorable rating and a 52% unfavorable rating, according to the poll.
This combination of voter's strongly motivated by hope and hate has the potential to inspire the highest Election Day turnout in recent memory.

Since 1904 voter turnout has surpassed 60% only seven times through 28 campaigns. The last time being 1968 when the populace was highly politicized with the assassinations of Martin Luther King Jr. and Democratic presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy and race riots across the nation.

Also telling from the '68 campaign for this years election is that there were three candidates contesting for the presidency, Richard Nixon, Hubert Humphrey and independent George Wallace. A scenario that may very well be realized in the coming months.

Other similarities from the '68 campaign are Nixon's leaning on the term "silent majority" often trumpeted by Donald and "White House experience" used to prop up former VP Humphrey and First Lady/ Secretary of State Hillary.
Subsidize a "billionaire"
and get yours here!

FYI: Voters can pay for the privilege to advertise membership in Trump's silent majority for only $10 for a set of TWO signs.

Will Trump inspire a 3rd party candidate?

The calls for a "real Republican" to carry the banner for "reasonable Republicans" put off by Trump are getting louder and similarities to '68 may become more pronounced.

Nixon's campaign worried that Wallace's anti desegregation platform and his running mate Curtis "Bombs Away" Lemay would siphon votes from their campaign. On the flip-side Humphrey war room fretted over Wallace's Democratic credentials and his appeal to blue-collar workers in the northern states.

Washington insider publication The Hill recently ran an expectant story: Ten third-party candidate names at top of Never Trump's list, suggesting the most likely challengers to Clinton and Trump.


One name jumps out from the list that could throw a minor wrench into both candidates’ campaigns is: Former New Mexico Gov. Gary  Johnson.

The likely Libertarian Party nominee is so far the only candidate other than Trump and Clinton who could be on the ballot in all 50 states.

Johnson served two terms as the Republican governor of New Mexico beginning in 1995. He participated in one GOP presidential debate early in the 2012 cycle before running as a Libertarian and winning about 1.3 million votes in the general election.

Since 2012, Johnson has been working as president of a marijuana marketing firm. He left that position to run for president, winning the Libertarian nomination again in 2016. 

Johnson could be the answer: A Monmouth University survey from late March found him taking 11 percent in a hypothetical match-up against Trump and Clinton.

In a statement released Wednesday after Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) left the GOP race, Johnson put himself forward as the alternative to “two of the most polarizing candidates in recent history.”

“With millions of Americans now feeling politically ‘homeless,’ a two-term Governor who balanced budgets, cut taxes, cut regulations and truly reduced the size of government may offer the home they are seeking,” Johnson said.

Although it is believed a third party candidate could lock Trump out of the Oval office, with Hillary's high negative's a third candidate could doom her also as Republicans that are planing to stay home rather than vote for either candidate may be motivated to join the fray.

Trump's trump card

If a third candidate fails to get in the ring and anti-Trump Republicans thumb their noses at voting for the Donald his vote is likely to be historically low.
Trump wouldn't be the first ridiculed
GOP candidate to win the presidency

There is also a fair probability that not only do Republicans stay home but Democrats too. Hillary confessed in the New Yorker: "Look, I have said before and it won't surprise anybody to hear me say it, this is not easy for me" Clinton said. "I am not a natural politician, in case you haven't noticed, like my husband or President Obama..."

Couple her inspirational shortcomings with Trump's "potty-mouth" (see Bonus insights below) trashing her daily in the ratings slavish national media day in and day out, Hillary may find it difficult to motivate any voters beyond her core constituency to vote, except to vote against Trump.

If bombastic Donald can find the right balance between his offensive rhetoric to ameliorate his negative sentiment among swing voters coupled with his highly motivated Tea party clan there may be a path to 1600 Pennsylvania Ave.

Does Trump's charisma trump vacant policy? 

There were those among the other 16 original Republican candidates with detailed policy platforms and superior conservative credentials but none had Donald's eccentric charisma.

The oodles of free "news" media coverage Charisma garners is an intangible that can win an election all on its own, as Trump has demonstrated thus far.

It is described in the Miriam-Webster dictionary as: a personal magic of leadership arousing special popular loyalty or enthusiasm for a public figure (as a political leader).

Can charisma trump policy or will seat of the pants policy derail his campaign?

Trump's vacant policy platform has lead to embarrassing unpresidential flip-flops.

In the midst of a live interview on CNBC he made up his abortion policy falling for a leading question only to backpedal just hours later after hearing the backlash and probably seeing some quick polls. CNN reported: Donald Trump's 3 positions on abortion in 3 hours.

Another example of Trump twisting like a fish out of water occurred when Trump gurgled in on the UK’s Brexit debate and chided President Obama for getting: 

into the heated debate last month, warning that leaving the European Union would diminish Britain's role on the world stage and leave it at "the back of the queue" for trade deals with the United States. Brexit supporters and other conservative politicians reacted angrily to Obama's perceived interference in British matters.

Trump, too, joined the chorus of condemnation.
"I didn't think it was a good thing for him to do it," the presumptive Republican nominee told the Daily Mail earlier this week, insisting that Obama should have remained neutral.

"I would say that I'm not going to give Britain any advice, but I know there are a lot of people that are very, very much against being in the E.U.," he added.

Yet on Thursday, just days later, Trump did give Britain his advice during an interview with Fox News.

"I would say [the British] are better off without [the E.U.], personally," he said, and then offered a rather bizarre clarification to an on-the-record statement: "But I'm not making that as a recommendation, just my feeling." 

By Ishaan TharoorWashington Post

From a major domestic issue to relations with one of the US's most vital allies, Trump has demonstrated his lack of preparedness and capacity for arguably the most exacting job on earth.

Trump as the apprentice - Hire or Fire

The presumptive Republican nominee demonstrates the intellect of a quick thinking salesman firing off any answer in the hope of immediate concurrence from his audience, without regard for the bigger picture, to close "the Deal" and gain a handsome commission.

Dubya Bush failed to see past the nearsightedness of today's revenge and what he fostered in today's Middle East is a tragedy of epic proportions.

Trump stupefyingly quoted the National Enquirer to link "Lyin' Ted" Cruz' father to JFK assassin Lee Harvey Oswald.

He labelled his only other serious challenger "sweaty little-Marco, the choke artist". but now that they've both bowed out of the contest and are no longer a threat, rumours have it that Trump has not ruled out either as a possible running mate. 

Trump: "Marco's a good guy, a really nice guy, and I like him. But not necessarily with respect to any position, but it could happen"

On Cruz for a running mate: "We'll, he's certainly a capable guy. So it's something we can think about... but it's certainly something we would think about.

Maybe a new book on "The art of noncommittal waffling" is in the offing after the election.

Can Trump be trusted?

Apparently, not for a New York minute!


Would you hire an inexperienced candidate, who combs over his shortcomings with vituperation to lead the free world?

One thing that is certain is that it was foolish to brashly dismiss Trump from the beginning of his campaign, less than a year ago.

It is time to take him seriously, call him out from behind his childish rhetoric, expose his bald policy credentials and take him on, head on.


Wayne Pajunen

Wayne is a political affairs columnist, consultant and former employee of Canada’s House of Commons and the Liberal Party of Canada. His work also appears in The Hill Times, The News Lens, Taipei Times and AMCHAM Business Topics magazine.



Bonus: Lighter-side insights provided byHomer Simpson and Fox:


Stephen Colbert: Cartoon Donald Tell Colbert Who Started It... Spoiler "You started it!"


Cartoon Trump Is Emperor of New York


Donald Calling (potty mouth)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ISKnufsTUn8

Double Bonus
Jon Stewart May Not Sit Out The 2016 Election, After 
All His new HBO series may start up before November 6.


Update May 11th: Always nice when John Stewart echos your point of view. 

He said the television-news business is "incentivized in the way a crack dealer is incentivized." 

"It can do tremendous damage, but as long as people are buying crack, everything is good," he said.
"There are heads of networks who have said Donald Trump is great for business," Stewart added. "Well, why would you kill the thing that's great for business? Why would you even say what it was?" 
http://www.businessinsider.com/jon-stewart-tv-donald-trump-2016-5